The year 2022 was marked by a historic record in profits and dividends for federal state-owned companies, a TradeMap survey points out.
Together, the federal state-owned companies added a net profit of BRL 179.672 billion from January to September 2022, distributing profits totaling BRL 189.508 billion.
Only companies with federal government participation in its share capital were considered in the sample, such as BB Seguridade (BBSE3), Banco do Brasil (BBAS3), Petrobras (PETR4), Caixa Seguridade (CXSE3), Banco da Amazônia (BAZA3), Nord Brasil (BNBR3), Telebras (TELB3) and Eletrobras (ELET3) – which, although privatized, still has 33.05% of its ordinary shares in government hands.
The survey looked at actual dividends paid by SOEs, both payments related to 2022 results and advances on future earnings, in some cases.
Einar Rivero, commercial manager of TradeMap and author of the survey, explains that it will be possible to close the result for the year only when the companies present their fourth quarter financial statements. However, there are already signs that 2022 will be the best year since 2016, with the net profit of federal state-owned companies able to exceed R$200 billion.
The dividend volume is also expected to be the largest in history, Rivero points out. Dividends for the third quarter of 2022, partly paid by Petrobras on November 21 and partly scheduled for January 19, of R$ 3.35 per share equal to R$ 43 billion, were not included in the account. “This brings the volume of dividends distributed in 2022 to more than R $ 233 billion,” he points out.
Looking at just nine months of 2022, Petrobras concentrates the largest volume in the sample, with a net profit of 144.9 billion reais and dividends of 173.4 billion reais. Of all the state-owned companies considered in the survey, the oil company was the only one that paid out more dividends to its shareholders than it earned last year, due to anticipated earnings.
Compared to dividend payouts in 2021, a year also marked by strong payouts and anticipations, federal state-owned corporation earnings more than doubled. Compared to 2016, distributed earnings increased nearly 28 times.
Although the picture for 2022 is positive, the scenario for 2023 is cloudy for federal state-owned companies, according to analysts polled by the Money info. Even with dividend yield rates (dividend yield) still high, many have already given up recommending Petrobras and Banco do Brasil. BB Seguridade, on the other hand, gained space in the face of high interest rates and lower risk of interference.
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Time to say goodbye to Petrobras in dividend portfolios?
Many analysts have already removed or intend to remove Petrobras from their recommended 2023 dividend portfolios.
XP, for example, made this move in December 2022. He stressed that despite the discount on shares and confidence in the company’s growth potential in the coming years, political uncertainties and possible interference weigh more heavily. Recently, the brokerage has predicted a dividend yield by 49% for PETR4 and PETR3 shares in 2023.
Another one that should take Petrobras off the recommended portfolio in 2023 is Guides. “It’s not worth partnering with a company that doesn’t aim to generate shareholder value,” said Mateus Haag, equity analyst at Guide. The projection is A dividend yield 22% next year.
Whereas Petrobras may have a payment of 25% of net income in 2023, Júlio Borba, an analyst at Benndorf Research, predicts a dividend yield 10% for Petrobras, with emphasis on preferred stock. However, it does not recommend the company in passive income portfolios. “Dividends are expected to decline significantly over the next four years. But I think the price is quite attractive for those looking for very long-term appreciation.”
Levante has been away from Petrobras for some time. Flávio Conde, an analyst at the company, predicts that if the oil company’s net profit fell by 10%, dividends would amount to R$ 2.64 per share in 2023, a dividend yield by 11.8%. In a 20% profit decline scenario, the yield would be 7.7% or R$1.73 per share.
The only optimist among the analysts interviewed by the Money info is Luan Alves, Head of Equity at VG Research. The house recommends buying Petrobras from 2020, and has maintained the role even when it has exceeded the maximum price and fair value. “We still have a good outlook for Petrobras’ dividend in 2023. After a more than 40% decline from its recent peak, it’s back on the radar,” he points out. he plans dividend yield by 11% in 2023 – provided that the pricing policy and the exchange rate and oil prices are maintained.
“The progress made in running the business between 2017 and 2022 has made it a highly profitable and profitable business. Therefore, no matter how bad the next administration is, some of this progress will remain. In any case, our vision is long-term. For 20 or 30 years the company continues and will continue to be a good business”, underlines Alves.
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• Petrobras losing space in dividend portfolios in 2023, despite an expected return of up to 22%; because?
BB Seguridade: The new favorite wallet
With interest rates still high, the scenario is seen as promising for BB Seguridade – which, while a state-owned company, does not carry the same interference risks as Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) or Petrobras (PETR4), according to analysts.
The company has some advantages for being the insurance arm of Banco do Brasil, its distribution platform. “Any agency, internet or platform where the bank is present can sell BB Seguridade insurance, which represents a great competitive advantage,” underlines Guilherme Tiglia, partner and analyst at Nord Research.
The abundance of insurance companies is justified in the so-called financial float: On a monthly basis, companies collect “premiums” — the amounts paid by customers who buy insurance — and keep them invested, usually in fixed-income securities or highly liquid assets. Insurers will have to spend these amounts only if the insurance is activated, in the event of a claim. Until then, the money continues to earn interest.
The company has an operating profit if, in a given period, between the premiums collected and the expenses with claims, there is a surplus – or rather floating surplus. Since the values make it worth investing, there is also a financial gain. It is for this reason that when the Selic rate increases, insurers’ profitability is higher and their dividends increase.
Sergio Biz, partner and analyst at GuiaInvest, points out that BB Seguridade distributes recurring and substantial dividends. The company makes semi-annual payments, always in the months of February and August. It recently announced that it should allocate 95% of the profit (payment) from 2022 to dividends. In August 2022 it even remunerated its shareholders with dividends of 1.036 reais per share, but market expectations are for an increase in remuneration as early as February 2023, referring to the results of the second half of 2022.
With the company allocating nearly all of its profit to dividends, Biz expects good earnings in 2023, driven by operating profit in insurance and brokerage. Draw a dividend yield of 9.5%, with a maximum price of R$ 27.50. “The only disadvantage the investor faces now is to pay dearly for the stock,” he says.
Recently, analysts at JP Morgan highlighted that the company has double-digit earnings growth potential ea payment by about 90% in the next few years.
In the North, the dividend yield the projection is 9%, with a maximum price of R$ 32. According to Tiglia, in addition to having excellent operating prospects, premium growth and reduction of the claims ratio, BB Seguridade continues to benefit from the increase in interest rates. “With a defensive profile, trading at 11 times its profit, the recommendation is to buy BB Seguridade,” he reiterates. Ouro Preto Investimentos expects a dividend yield of 8.5%, with a maximum price of R $ 40.
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