IPCA rises by 0.62% in December and closes 2022 with an increase of 5.79%, underlines IBGE; inflation was higher than expected

The national extended consumer price index (HICP) rose 0.62% in December and finished the year at a high of 5.79%, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and statistics (IBGE).

Inflation has exceeded the target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN). The target for the HICP was 3.5%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points.

The monthly high and annualized rate exceeded market expectations by 0.44% and 5.60% respectively according to Refinitiv’s consensus.

All nine product and service groups reviewed by the IBGE were discharged in December.

Highlights

The largest change in the month (1.60%) and the largest impact (0.21 percentage points) came from Health & Personal Care, which accelerated from its November result (0.02%). The second largest contributor, at 0.14 points, came from Food and Beverage, up 0.66%. Together, the two groups accounted for around 56% of the total impact of December’s HICP.

The second largest change came from apparel (1.52%), whose result was above 1% for the fifth consecutive month. Transportation (0.21%) and Homes (0.20%) decelerated from the previous month, when they recorded 0.83% and 0.51% respectively. The other groups ranged from 0.19% of Education to 0.64% of Household Goods.

The increase in Health and personal care is related to the increase in the prices of personal hygiene items (3.65%), especially perfumes (9.02%). Perfume prices fell by 4.87% in November; with the increase in December, the sub-item contributed the largest individual impact on the index for the month, 0.09 points.

In addition, the prices of make-up items (5.42%) and skin products (3.85%) also increased. Health plans (1.20%) continued with the same change as the previous month, reflecting the incorporation of the monthly fraction of adjustment of new and old plans for the 2022-2023 cycle.

The result of the Food and Beverage group (0.66%) was led by food at home (0.71%). The increases in the prices of tomatoes (14.17%), borlotti beans (7.37%), onions (4.56%) and rice (3.77%) stand out. On the downside, long-life milk prices (-3.83%) fell for the fifth consecutive month, contributing -0.03 percentage points to December’s HICP.

In food away from home (0.51%), snacks (1.10%) accelerate compared to November (0.42%), while the result of meals (0.19%) is lower than the previous month (0.36 %).

In the Clothing group (1.52%), women’s clothing presents the greatest variation (2.10%) and the greatest impact (0.03 pp) among the items surveyed. In addition, the prices of menswear (1.55%), children’s clothing (1.46%) and footwear and accessories (1.09%) also increased by more than 1% in December.

Transport and accommodation

The Transportation group (0.21%) had a lower variation than the previous month (0.83%), influenced by the drop in petrol prices (-1.04%). The prices of diesel (-2.07%) and gas for vehicles (-0.45%) also fell. Ethanol (0.48%) was the only fuel on the rise in December.

Another component of the group to record an increase was that of airline tickets (0.89%), whose prices had fallen by 9.80% in November. Another highlight was the increase in the toll sub-item (3.00%), following the adjustments between 10.20% and 12.00% in some toll booths in San Paolo (3.95%), to starting December 16th.

The deceleration of the Housing group (from 0.51% in November to 0.20% in December) is due to less intense increases in residential rents (0.40%) and residential electricity (0.20%).

The variations in electricity in the regions went from -3.54% in Rio de Janeiro, where there was a 5.99% reduction in the tariffs of one of the concessionaires examined, effective from 15 December, to 8 .77% of Rio Branco, due to the 14.48% drop in residential rate adjustment, since Dec. 13. Readjustments of 21.54% were also recorded in Brasilia (6.66%), effective as of November 3, and of 3.62% in one of the Porto Alegre concessionaires (2.30%), applied as of November 22.

Still in Construction, the positive change in the water and sewage tariff (0.50%) is a consequence of the adjustments of 10.15% in Belém (9.51%), in force since 28 November, and of 11.82 % in Rio de Janeiro (3.65%) , effective November 8. The increase in the methane gas pipeline (3.67%) reflects the 10.89% adjustment of the residential tariffs in São Paulo (7.01%), starting from 10 December. In Rio de Janeiro (-0.31%), the drop in induced gas is a consequence of the 2.47% reduction in tariffs applied from 1 November.

All areas had positive variations in December, the highest was that of Rio Branco (AC) (1.32%), due to the increase in electricity (8.77%). The lowest result was recorded in Rio de Janeiro (0.33%), where, in addition to the drop in electricity (-3.54%), there was a drop in the prices of food products such as long-life milk conservation (-4.70%) and fruit (-3.49%).

Accumulated 2022

In the 2022 cumulative, the result of 5.79% was mainly influenced by the Food and Beverage group (11.64%), which had the greatest impact (2.41 pp) in the period. Health and personal care follow, with a change of 11.43% and an impact of 1.42 percentage points.

The greatest variation came from the Clothing group (18.02%), which had increases of more than 1% in 10 of the 12 months of the year. The Housing group (0.07%) was close to stability and Transport (-1.29%) recorded the largest decline and the most intense negative impact (-0.28 percentage points) among the nine groups examined.

The 11.64% increase in the Food and Beverage group was driven by eating at home (13.23%). In evidence the onion (130.14%), which had the greatest increase among the 377 sub-items that make up the HICP, and long-life milk (26.18%), which contributed with the greatest impact (0 ,17 pp) among foods for consumption at home. Milk prices increased most strongly between March and July 2022, when the cumulative increase for the year reached 77.84%.

Starting in August, with the end of the low season, prices began a sequence of decreases until the end of the year, the most significant of which was recorded in September (-13.71%). In the case of onions, the increase is linked to the reduction of the cultivated area, the increase in production costs and climatic problems. Other highlights were potatoes (51.92%), fruit (24.00%) and French bread (18.03%).

Food away from home, in turn, increased by 7.47%. While the meal had an increase of 5.86%, the peak of the snack was 10.67%.

In Health and personal care (11.43%), the largest contribution (0.61 pp) came from personal hygiene items (16.69%), especially perfumes (22.61%) and hair products (14.97%). Another highlight was the health plan, up 6.90% and impacting 0.25 pp on the cumulative HICP for the year. At the end of May, the National Agency for Integrative Health (ANS) set the ceiling for the adjustment of the new individual plans (after Law no.

The incorporation of the districts referring to the old plans began in October, with retroactive effect to July. Also noteworthy is the 13.52% increase in pharmaceutical products. From 1 April 2022, the readjustment of up to 10.89% of drug prices defined by the Chamber of Medicines Market Regulation (CMED) came into force, according to the therapeutic class and the competitive profile of the substances.

In the Apparel group (18.02%), the prices of women’s (21.35%) and men’s (20.77%) apparel accumulated increases of more than 20% over the year. The variations in children’s clothing, footwear and accessories were 14.41% and 16.83% respectively, while jewelery and bijouterie (3.67%) recorded the lowest variation. Between April 2020 and May 2022 there was a sharp increase in the price of cotton, one of the main raw materials in the sector. Other production costs have also increased and there has been a recovery in demand, after the easing of the covid -19 pandemic.

In Construction (0.07%), the main positive contributions came from the rent for housing (8.67%), from the water and sewage tariff (9.22%) and from condominium expenses (6.80%). Together, the three sub-items contributed around 0.62 percentage points to the accumulated HICP for 2022. Also worth mentioning are increases of nearly 20% in cleaning items (19.49%) and just over 6% in bottled gas (6.27%). On the other hand, there was a 19.01% drop in residential electricity, with an impact of -0.96 pp on the cumulative index for the year.

Although the standard electricity bill considers more components, the setting of the maximum ICMS tariffs referred to in the Complementary Law 194/22 has been instrumental in the decrease of electricity prices, together with the maintenance of the green tariff flag from April to December, after the adoption of the flag of water scarcity in the first months of the year.

In Transportation, the greatest positive impact (0.49 pp) came from the sub-item registration and driving license (22.59%). The increase in IPVA in 2022 is mainly due to the increase in car prices in 2021, as the charge is based on the market value of the vehicles at the end of the previous year. The prices of new cars (8.19%) and used cars (2.30%) continued to rise in 2022, albeit at a slower pace than in 2021 (16.16% and 15.05% respectively). .

Another important increase was that of airline tickets, which grew by 23.53% and contributed 0.14 percentage points to the cumulative result for the year. On the downside, petrol stands out (-25.78%), responsible for the most intense negative impact (-1.70 pp) among the 377 sub-items that make up the HICP. Gasoline prices fell most significantly between July and September, following a series of reductions in the price of fuel at refineries and the application of Supplementary Law 194, which limited the collection of ICMS on fuel by States.

INPC

The National Consumer Price Index – INPC increased by 0.69% in December, 0.31 percentage points more than the result observed in November (0.38%). As of December 2021, the rate was 0.73%.

Foodstuffs increased from 0.55% in November to 0.74% in December. The change in non-food goods was also higher: 0.67% in December against an increase of 0.32% in the previous month.

As regards the regional indices, all areas rose in December. The maximum occurred in the municipality of Rio Branco (1.40%), driven by the increase in electricity (8.76%). The lowest result was recorded in the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan region (0.21%), impacted by the 3.59% drop in the electricity bill.

The cumulative increase in INPC in 2022 was 5.93%, lower than the 10.16% recorded in 2021. Food products increased by 11.91%, while non-food products increased by 4.08 %. In 2021 the Food and beverage group had presented a variation of 7.71% and the non-food group of 10.93%. The following table shows the results by group of products and services.

As for the regional indices, the highest rate was found in the metropolitan region of São Paulo (7.22%), mainly due to the increase in registrations and licenses (23.66%) and residential rent ( 10.48%). The smallest change occurred in the metropolitan area of ​​Porto Alegre (3.05%), whose result was influenced by the drop in petrol prices (-30.90%) and residential electricity (-32.79% ).

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