More than 600 funds had shares in Americanas in September 2022, totaling approximately BRL 1.5 billion

The collapse of Americanas shares (AMER3) this Thursday (12) has caused concern among investors positioned in funds with exposure to newspapers.

In total, around 600 funds held the company’s common shares as of September, according to data compiled by the Economics platform. Added together, the gross financial volume recorded by the portfolios was R $ 1.53 billion.

The numbers include funds of all classes (multimarkets, shares, among others) and consider purchased shares only – this is not a net position (discounting sold bets, or shorts).

The September data are the most recent provided by the managers to the Securities Commission (CVM) and compiled by platforms such as Economatica.

Americanas spooked the market after reporting a R$20 billion shortfall related to supplier accounts, which was not included in the company’s balance sheets.

In today’s trading session alone, the company saw its market value evaporate from R$10.83 billion to R$2.45 billion, down by R$8.38 billion. The AMER3 newspaper lost 77.33%, quoted at R$ 2.72, in a shortened session for assets – which have spent most of the time in auction.

In absolute terms, the Moat Capital FIA Master fund, owned by Moat Capital, had the largest volume of AMER3 in its portfolio in September: BRL 327 million. Bogari Value Master II FIA, of Bogari Capital, had BRL 70 million and Tempo Capital Principal FIA, of Tempo Capital, another BRL 66 million.

In relative terms, the Colorado FIA IE fund, owned by Mandatto Gestão de Investimentos, was the portfolio in which the sum of Americanas shares equaled the largest volume of the fund’s equity: 99%. The Beau Soleil FIA IE fund, owned by the same manager, follows with 28%. In third place is a Zero Conflict Wealth Management fund, Beta FI Multimercado, with 18%.

Not all funds have maintained exposure to Americanas stock from September to date.

All Bogari Capital funds, for example, had a net long position of around R$120 million in Americanas shares that month, according to data compiled by the Trademap platform. But he zeroed his exposure to newspapers in October last year, after having held them in his portfolio for about a year.

See the ten funds with the largest absolute positions in Americanas stock (AMER3) as of September 2022:

Source: TC/Economatica. Location on 09/30/22.

See the ten funds with the largest relative positions in Americanas stocks (AMER3) as of September 2022:

Source: TC/Economatica. Location on 09/30/22.

Read more:
• One day after a BRL 20 billion loss, Americanas bonds trade at up to 60% discount

According to XP’s equity and fixed income team, accounting inconsistencies can lead to material shifts in current liquidity (current assets/current liabilities) and financial leverage (net debt/EBITDA) ratios.

In calculations by brokerage specialists, Americanas’ net debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) ratio could go from 1.7 times in the third quarter of 2022 to 8 times in appreciation throughout the same period .

The simulations take into account a pro forma analysis where the entire impact must be recognized at once, with an increase in short-term gross debt of R$ 20 billion, as disclosed by the company – a number that does not has been verified yet.

In addition to the impacts on the company’s debt, specialists draw attention to the restrictive clauses (alliances) that the company has in a small part of loan and financing contracts – with a focus on creditor protection.

In this case, the maximum financial debt indicator allowed must be equal to 3.5 times (net debt/Ebitda). If there is an accounting reclassification, this indicator can reach 8 times.

“When this happens, it becomes necessary to renegotiate with creditors, looking to give up [perdão] for a certain period until the indicator can return to compliance,” the analysts say. “This renegotiation is done in exchange for a payment to investors (waiver fee) and affects the company’s credibility on the market”.

On the equity side, XP analysts’ assessment is that the scenario is uncertain. Therefore, the recommendation was kept as “under review”.

Even after the meeting held this morning with investors, the broker’s specialists highlighted that there is “not enough visibility” to detail the financial impact that the revisions should have on the company’s numbers.

The professionals also pointed out that the review should only be published after the audit process, which could add more risk and uncertainty to the thesis in Americanas.

understand the case

The collapse of assets comes after the disclosure, Wednesday (11), of accounting inconsistencies amounting to R $ 20 billion, in a case that culminated in the departure of the president of Amereicanas, Sérgio Rial, and the director of investor relations André Covre. They resigned just ten days after taking office.

Rial will also act as an advisor, supporting the company’s key shareholders in the investigation process into the incident. The former chief executive gave indications of the company’s next steps at an investor conference, amid several revisions of recommendations by market analysts, which highlight the great uncertainties following the announcement.

In a conference with the market, Rial stressed that the company will have to capitalize to deal with an accounting problem.

The operation will likely be a follow on, but the executive states that it is not possible to estimate the capital requirement. “No one has defined the value, also because the number has not been verified. But we know it won’t be a compounding of [apenas] million,” Rial said. The executive highlighted the commitment of the major shareholders (3G) to the company. “But it cannot be the solution alone. ‘Give me a check and it’s paid,’ it doesn’t,” he pointed out.

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