World markets are in good spirits on Thursday (12), awaiting the release of the consumer price index (CPI) for December in the US, which could solidify the bet that inflation has peaked and the Federal Reserve (Fed) could ease the pace of monetary tightening to 25 basis points at its next meeting.
The average of the projections collected by Refinitv indicate a stability compared to November and an increase of 6.5% on an annual basis.
In Brazil, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad will announce the new government’s first package of economic measures at 14:30 (Brasilia time).
Also on the economic radar, the IBGE is releasing its Monthly Services Survey (PMS) for November, with Refinitiv’s consensus expecting it to be up 0.2% over October and up 6.2% year over year.
In the corporate space, shares of Americanas (AMER3) are expected to suffer greatly in today’s trading session after the retailer identified R$20 billion in accounting mismatches and newly appointed Sergio Rial (chairman) and André Covre (financial director and investors) leave the company.
1. World Scholarships
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US futures indices are trading steady this morning, expanding on gains from the previous session, with all attention focused on consumer inflation data for December, which should ease and signal to the US Central Bank that its tightening monetary policy has taken effect.
Heading into the day, shares rose on investors betting the Fed could slow its rate hikes due to more subdued pricing.
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US investors have yet to reverberate last week’s jobless claims numbers. Refinitiv’s consensus expects 215,000 applications in the period.
See how the futures markets performed:
- Dow Jones Futures (US), +0.01%
- S&P 500 Futures (US), +0.03%
- Nasdaq Futures (US), +0.04%
Asia
Asian markets closed higher in today’s session as global investors braced for December’s reading on US consumer prices.
Inflation in China accelerated to 1.8 percent in December from a year earlier as food prices rose, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The gauge was in line with Reuters expectations and higher than the previous month’s reading of 1.6%.
China’s producer price index (PPI) fell 0.7% in December from a year ago, worse than expectations for a 0.1% drop.
- Shanghai SE (China), +0.05%
- Nikkei (Japan), +0.01%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +0.36%
- Kospi (South Korea), +0.24%
Europe
European markets climb to the highest level since April 2022 as investors look ahead to the US consumer price index on Thursday. Economists expect inflation to have cooled in December, which could signal to the Fed that previous rate hikes have had the intended effect.
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- FTSE 100 (UK), +0.42%
- DAX (Germany), +0.26%
- CAC 40 (France), +0.58%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.54%
Goods
Oil prices rallied in today’s session, extending yesterday’s gains as the Chinese demand outlook improves and concerns mount over the impact of sanctions on Russian supplies.
Iron ore prices in China are also high, with China reopening after the easing of Covid rules, raising optimism that demand for the commodity will pick up in 2023.
- WTI crude oil, +0.35%, to 77.68 dollars a barrel
- Brent Oil, +0.36%, to 82.97 dollars a barrel
- Iron ore traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange rose 1.36% to 855.50 yuan, or $126.70
bitcoins
- Bitcoin, +3.44% to $18,139.00 (24 hours ago)
2. Schedule
All market attention is focused on the US December consumer price index (CPI), which should dictate the next steps in the Fed’s monetary policy. Refinitiv’s consensus is that inflation will be stable from November and up 6.5% year over year.
In Brazil, the Monthly Service Survey (PMS) issued by the IBGE is published. The Refinitiv consensus calls for an advance of 0.2% on a monthly basis and 6.2% on an annual basis. Itaú expects a slight increase (+0.1% on a monthly basis), but with the component of services offered to families down by 1.5%; Meanwhile, Bradesco notes that despite the lower hiring numbers seen in the November Caged, he expects a still resilient outcome from the services sector.
Brazil
9am: Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance, has a meeting with Banco do Brasil and CAIXA
9:30: search for services
10:30: National Treasury
11am – Haddad meets President Lula
2.30pm: Haddad to announce finance ministry economic measures at Palazzo Planalto
16: Haddad to hold press conference
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6 pm: Haddad participates in the inauguration ceremony of the new President of Caixa, Maria Rita Serrano
United States of America
10.30am: Consumer price index
11:30am: Unemployment Insurance Claims; Refinitiv consensus forecasts 215,000 requests over the period
4:00 p.m.: Federal budget balance sheet
3. Economic news
Haddad today announces a package of economic measures
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad will announce the government’s first package of economic measures this Thursday (12), at 14:30.
According to sources interviewed by Broadcast, the package will contain four provisional measures, two decrees and ordinances.
The package should include the repeal of the PIS/Cofins cut on corporate revenues, the return of the tie-breaker vote in CARF in favor of the Treasury, and changes in ICMS.
4. Political news
STF forms majority to maintain Ibaneis removal and arrest of former security secretary
The Federal Supreme Court (STF) was formed yesterday by a majority to endorse the decisions of Minister Alexandre de Moraes which resulted in the removal, for 90 days, of the Governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha, and the preventive detention of the former Secretary of Public Security of the DF, Anderson Torres, and the former general commander of the Military Police of the DF, Colonel Fábio Vieira.
Wellington Dias is expected to present the new Bolsa Família in February
The Minister of Development and Welfare, the Family and the Fight against Hunger, Wellington Dias, announced yesterday that in February he will present a proposal for a new Bolsa Família. According to the minister, the program will focus on integration with the Single Social Assistance System and on updating the Single Registry.
After leaving a meeting with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the Planalto Palace, the minister said that from February, the government will start actively seeking to include those outside the program, start paying R$150 to those with children under the six years (to be paid in March) and update about 10 million services that present “evidence of irregularities”.
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Covid
Brazil recorded 96 deaths from covid-19 in the last 24 hours on Wednesday, for a total of 695,127 since the start of the pandemic.
With that, the rolling average of deaths over the past 7 days is 98. Compared to the average 14 days ago, the change was -43%.
In total, the country recorded 21,667 new Covid-19 diagnoses in 24 hours, completing 36,582,164 known cases since the start of the pandemic.
American (AMER3)
Americanas (AMER3) reported yesterday in a statement that inconsistencies were found in the accounting records by reducing the accounts payable carried out in previous years, including the year 2022.
In a preliminary analysis, the retailer’s accounting area estimates the mismatch amounts to be approximately BRL 20 billion as of the base date of 30 September 2022. The company still estimates the cash effect of these mismatches to be immaterial.
According to the company, “in light of this fact and the resulting change in management priorities,” CEO Sergio Rial and CFO and Investor Relations Officer André Covre, who took office on January 2, 2023, communicated their decision not to remain in Americanas , with immediate effect.
(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)
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