US futures slightly bearish ahead of big bank earnings; Brazilian GDP preview and other highlights

US futures indices start slightly lower, while European and Asian markets are trading higher this Friday (13), a day after US consumer inflation decelerates and signals the Federal Reserve (Fed) can reduce the pace of the monetary tightening cycle.

Investors prepare for the start of the Q4 2022 earnings season for US companies, with major banks due to release their financial statements starting this morning. Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are expected to release their numbers. Earnings should provide more insight into the health of the US economy and set the tone for the earnings season.

In China, exports and imports fell sharply in December, but less than expected, according to data from the country’s customs administration.

Ibovespa today: check the market movement live this Friday

In the domestic scenario, investors should be eyeing the November IBC-Br, which is considered a preview of GDP, with Refinitiv’s consensus expecting it to decline by 0.2% month-on-month.

The economic measures by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, announced yesterday afternoon, have not been very encouraging, despite his promise to reduce the fiscal deficit to 1% of GDP. The shares have the potential to deliver a BRL 242.7 billion improvement in public finances, according to portfolio calculations.

1. World Scholarships

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US futures indices are trading lower after rising the day before, with investors reflecting slower inflation as they await the start of earnings season.

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In addition to the big banks, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock and UnitedHealth are also reporting their numbers today. Consumer confidence data is expected in the late morning.

New York stocks closed higher on Thursday after a December consumer price report showed inflation slowed for the month, stoking hopes the Federal Reserve may once again slow interest rate hikes .

See how the futures markets performed:

  • Dow Jones Futures (US), -0.03%
  • S&P 500 Futures (US), -0.12%
  • Nasdaq Futures (US), -0.30%

Asia

Asian markets mostly closed higher with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei after the US inflation data.

Among regional indicators, China’s exports fell 9.9% year-on-year in dollar terms in December, slightly better than the 10% drop predicted by a Reuters poll.

Imports fell 7.5% year over year in December in dollar terms, even surpassing the 9.8% drop forecast by Reuters. The slightest decline meant that trade was still on the rise for 2022.

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  • Shanghai SE (China), +1.01%
  • Nikkei (Japan), -1.25%
  • Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +1.04%
  • Kospi (South Korea), +0.89%

Europe

European markets are trading at highs Friday as investors react to slowing US inflation and economic data from the euro zone.

The trade balance of the Eurozone in November recorded a deficit of 11.7 billion euros. The Refinitiv consensus predicted a deficit of 21.1 billion euros.

Industrial production in the Eurozone rose 1% from October to November, beating the Refinitv consensus which expected a 0.5% month-on-month increase.

  • FTSE 100 (UK), +0.65%
  • DAX (Germany), +0.10%
  • CAC 40 (France), +0.51%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.31%

Goods

Oil prices are trading in positive territory and heading for a weekly high of over 6%, on expectations for a less aggressive interest rate hike from the Fed and growth in oil demand from China.

Commodity prices were also boosted by the dollar’s slide to a near nine-month low after data showed US inflation fell for the first time in 2-and-a-half years, reinforcing expectations the Fed will slow the pace of tax increases.

Iron ore prices in China rose sharply, with greater confidence in the recovery of demand in the world’s second largest economy, after the reopening of its borders and the easing of Covid-19 restrictions following last year’s protests.

  • WTI crude oil, +0.42%, to 78.72 dollars a barrel
  • Brent Crude, +0.38%, at 84.35 dollars a barrel
  • Iron ore traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange rose 3.40% to 881.00 yuan, or $131.30

bitcoins

  • Bitcoin, -0.54% to $18,856.00 (24 hours ago)

2. Schedule

The week ends with the release by the Central Bank of the IBC-Br for November, considered a preview of the GDP. According to XP’s estimate, a drop of 0.4% should be recorded compared to October, while the Refinitiv consensus forecasts a decrease of 0.2% on a monthly basis.

In the US, consumer confidence data is available for January and the price of imported goods for December.

Brazil

9am: November IBC-Br; Refinitiv’s consensus expects it to be down 0.2% from the immediately preceding month

United States of America

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10:30 am: December price of imported goods

12pm: January Consumer Confidence

3pm: Baker Hughes equipment count

3. Economic news

Finance minister announces R$206.2 billion in fiscal measures

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad yesterday afternoon announced a series of measures aimed at reducing the primary fiscal deficit this year. The measures are mainly aimed at raising revenues, but some spending cuts have also been included.

The government presented a possible primary surplus of BRL 11.1 billion (0.1% of GDP) in 2023 (considering all measures). However, the minister himself assessed that “not necessarily everything will be approved or will enter into force in 2023. However, according to him, ‘an increase of R$ 90 billion in primary revenue is almost certain’. Therefore, it is possible to reach a primary deficit of between 0.5% and 1.0% of GDP in 2023.’

“Caixa must be a bank that lends money at a much lower rate,” Lula says

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defended that Caixa should be a bank that lends money “much cheaper”, but without causing losses. “I am sure we will count on Caixa’s support once again, so that Caixa will once again be a much stronger bank, lending much more money and much less, but without losing money because the bank needs to make a profit.” Lula said during Rita Serrano’s inauguration ceremony as bank president at Caixa Cultural in Brasilia.

4. Political news

PL believes the draft found in Torres’ house will be used to render Bolsonaro ineligible

Members of the PL, the party of former president Bolsonaro, believe that the document seized by the Federal Police at the home of former minister Anderson Torres will be used to open an investigation against Bolsonaro and make him inadmissible, Bela Megale reported, from the newspaper O Globo. .

The party has already anticipated this possibility due to other ongoing actions in the Electoral Tribunal, but believes the new document should speed up the process. The reading is that the chance of the former president retaining his political rights is close to zero.

Justice freezes 6.5 million reais from those accused of financing attacks

Federal judge Francisco Alexandre Ribeiro has decided to grant the request of the Advocacia-Geral da União (AGU) to freeze the assets of 52 individuals and seven legal entities accused of involvement in anti-democratic acts culminating in the invasion and destruction of the headquarters of the Three Powers in Brasilia, Sunday (8). The blocked total reaches R$ 6.5 million and represents the amount calculated up to the point of losses.

According to the AGU, the targets are responsible for paying for the rental of buses to bring people unhappy with the result of the 2022 elections to Brasilia, who have committed vandalism against the National Congress, the Planalto Palace and the Federal Supreme Court.

covid

Brazil recorded 128 covid-19 deaths in the past 24 hours on Thursday, for a total of 695,255 since the start of the pandemic.

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With that, the rolling average of deaths over the past 7 days is 90. Compared to the average 14 days ago, the change was -40%.

In total, the country recorded 20,505 new Covid-19 diagnoses in 24 hours, completing 36,602,669 known cases since the start of the pandemic.

Camillus (CAML3)

Camil Alimentos (CAML3) reported a net profit of BRL 147.1 million in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22), which is 22.1% higher than what was reported in the same period of 2021.

Iguatemi (IGTI11)

Total Iguatemi sales increased by 10.7% compared to strong 4Q21 to R$5.3 billion in 4Q22 and up 23.8% compared to 4Q19 excluding assets sold in 2019.

According to a note, the result demonstrates the good performance of shopping centers at Christmas, despite the negative impacts on sales on election days and on Brazil’s World Cup days.

Directional (DIRR3)

Direcional (DIRR3) reported net sales of BRL 694 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, a growth of 4% compared to the same period of 2021.

Launches reached R$1.1 billion in 4Q22, a growth of 53% compared to 4Q21. Cash generation was BRL 73 million in 2022.

(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)

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