Fixed income year? Analysts indicate the best public and private bonds for 2023; to watch

That desire to update life after the end of the year usually spills over into investing as well: a moment of inspiration to review your portfolio or start one. Due to high interest rates, which are expected to remain high for the next few months, fixed income has gained importance in this process.

But this class includes several options and it’s not always easy to choose between them. In addition to government bonds, there is the alphabet soup of private fixed income: CDB (Bank Deposit Certificates), CRI (Real Estate Receiving Certificates))CRA (Agribusiness Receipt Certificate), LCI (Real Estate Letter of Credit), LCA (Agribusiness Letter of Credit), as well as bonds.

How, then, to assemble a bond portfolio for 2023? The request for infomoneyanalysts have detailed the characteristics of each stock, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of public and private stocks, so investors can allocate their resources with confidence this year according to their profile.

Opinions vary among experts. “I believe in an increase in real interest rates in the economy this year, which reflects a reduction in global and domestic inflation. As a result, inflation-linked bonds should trade at higher rates and, therefore, we believe this is the best option for 2023,” says Vitor Amor Wolfgram, CNPI private credit analyst at Levante Investimentos.

Secondly, Wolfgram says it may be possible to perceive the price change during the security’s existence, due to mark-to-market – which is also an important factor for those who don’t want to hold the security to maturity. “I make an exception because this scenario can vary significantly with fiscal policy. A new weak fiscal anchor, for example, could completely change the described scenario”.

Speaking of mark-to-market, this is an important question for anyone looking to invest in fixed income this year. From 2 January, the periodic updating of the value of securities according to market conditions was extended to some securities which, until then, had only been marked “on the curve”.

“Everyone who owns bonds, CRIs, CRAs, and federal government securities purchased outside of direct Treasury will be marked to market. Investors who are cautious, risk-averse and don’t like to see a lot of fluctuations in their investments may feel upset, as they can see negative-yielding stocks within days,” explains Lucas Queiroz, fixed income strategist for individuals at Itau BBA.

He says bank-issued securities – such as CDB, LCI and LCA – now have a “relative attractiveness”, as there is no change in how their value is updated in investment portfolios. They continue to be marked “on the curve”, ie according to the rates negotiated at the time of investment.

It is important to remember that this alleged advantage would hardly be reflected in “real life”: if he wanted to sell a bank stock before maturity, the investor would have to do so at market prices (which may be different from those determined in the “on the curve” marking). .

Wolfgram, of Levante, highlights the tax issue of fixed income investments. In his view, income tax-exempt businesses should benefit from a high interest rate environment. His preference, therefore, with Selic maintained at a high level, is for CRI, CRA, LCI, LCA and incentive bonds.

But care is needed in the choice of investment. Faced with the uncertainties of domestic and foreign markets, investing in fixed income through funds, rather than directly in securities, may be an alternative.

“Opting for stocks of companies below the first line—that is, companies that may experience some difficulties but will weather this downturn in the economy—can yield high returns with relatively low risk,” Wolfgram says. But leaving that choice to professional managers tends to be safer, he says. It is a strategy only for experienced investors with an adequate risk profile, she points out.

Get expert perspective on different fixed income investment alternatives for 2023:

LCI, LCA and incentive bonds

“Since everything is foggy”, as Thiago Calestini, economist and shareholder of DOM Investimentos says, and it is not yet known what the next steps of the new government will be in the economy, the road is to focus “on short fixed-income securities, such as LCI and LCA, which are exempt from income tax”.

Calestine has reason to think this way. The money is “stuck” for less time and gives way. Resources can stay assigned for three or six months, for example. And, upon expiry, it is possible to reassess the economic scenario and make a new decision.

“Care must be taken when assessing the bond issuer’s ability to pay,” recommends Empírica’s director of fixed income, Renato Lázaro Ramos.

If the uncertainties of the economy dissipate, it is possible to opt for a longer bond,” says Thiago Calestine. “But it’s better to wait a bit before getting into the bonds,” he points out.

Incentive bonds are used to raise funds for specific projects and are also called infrastructure bonds. Priority sectors for licensure include logistics, transport, basic sanitation, energy and many others.

The incentive offered in these bonds, to arouse the interest of investors, is also the exemption from income tax, which is considered an advantage of the product.

CRA and CRI

The CRA and CRI must be analyzed project by project. “This will be a challenging year for the economy in general. Therefore, it is better to evaluate on a case-by-case basis,” explains Queiroz, of the Itaú BBA.

2022 was a good year for both assets. But it should be remembered that they are not protected by the FGC, the Fundo Garantidor de Crédito, which returns up to R$ 250,000 per investor and financial institution in the event of insolvency.

The two securities, which also attract attention for being exempt from personal income tax, stood out in the issues made on the market in 2022. with the same cadence as in 2021.

The assets, which had already grown throughout the year, reached R$1.2 billion in funding for CRA and R$4.5 billion for CRI in November 2022 alone. Brazilian Association of Financial Market Entities and capitals (Anbima).

“In difficult times, they tend to be less mean. And in good times, they are very good,” says Queiroz. “Brazil is distinguished by its climate and soil, so agribusiness is an important sector in the country. CRA investors end up benefiting because it takes some of the risk off them.”

One of the investment suggestions of David Camacho, founding partner and manager of Devant Asset, is Petrobras’ CRI, which launched on the market in September last year.

CDB

Those who opt for CDB, one of the best known fixed income assets, know that they will have to pay income tax. But it offers an advantage that CRIs, CRAs and bonds don’t have: it’s protected by the FGC.

David Camacho, founding partner and manager of Devant Asset, explains that the CDB allows you to “lock in” the investment. “With skyrocketing interest rates, investors can make money on two- or three-year terms. If all goes well and we don’t have a big tax problem and interest rates start going down, the person will secure a great rate.”

Arley Junior, investment strategist at Santander, points out that fixed income tends to have another prominent year in the recommendations. Products pegged to the CDI rate (the main indicator of profitability for fixed income) follow the evolution of the Selic rate and are therefore at very attractive levels. “A good way is to separate the daily money and put it in a CDB, DI fund or Selic Treasury. The rate is high and these are amounts that can be redeemed at any time ”, she specifies.

Within the fixed income bloc, Arley recommends investors opt for a CDB or fund and letter of credit. “The letter, because it is exempt from income tax. But it has no daily liquidity and has a mandatory ninety-day grace period,” he points out.

Another expert’s tip: Pre-fixed stocks can also be considered to make up a portfolio. “Right now, we’ve even recommended a fixed LCA, for example, because the interest rate is high,” he says. “Again, we have a combination of pre-fixed and post-fixed, taking advantage of market momentum.”

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Itaú BBA’s suggested portfolio highlights Treasuries HICP 2035 for 2023. Ramos, of Empírica, echoes: For him, longer inflation-linked bonds are a good opportunity today. “There may be price volatility, but not risk.”

According to him, due to unexpected inflation, as happened recently, with interest rates at the current level, buying longer HICP-indexed bonds is an excellent opportunity.

Given the outlook for Selic, the scenario projects real interest rates (inflation discount) to be high in 2023, making inflation-linked bonds an attractive option for bolder investors.

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