CDB today: profitability rises to 128% of the CDI and the prefix offer rises to 14.15%

The upward revisions of the estimates made by economists for the Selic – the base interest rate – this year have put pressure on the profitability offered by Bank Certificates of Deposit (CDB) upwards even in recent weeks.

Between 3 and 16 January, the maximum yield offered by securities pegged to the CDI (reference fixed income rate) reached 128% of the CDI. In the previous two weeks, between December 20 and January 2, the maximum return reached 105% of the CDI.

The highest yielding CDB was offered by Sinoserra Financeira, which does not have a credit risk rating (assessment), according to the major agencies. The shelf life of the product was 36 months.

This is what emerges from a survey by Quantum Finance, a company that provides solutions for the financial market, carried out at the request of Money info. All returns presented are gross, meaning no income tax (IR) deduction has yet been made.

Over the past 15 days, the rise in yields hasn’t been limited to 36-month maturities. The 12- and 24-month maturities saw the maximum yield reach 121% of CDI and 123% of CDI respectively over the period. In the previous fortnight the maximum rates found were in the order of 104.75% of the CDI and 101% of the CDI.

Although the increase in rates in the last 15 days is undeniable, it must be considered that the previous survey – carried out between the end of last year and the beginning of this year – presented a much lower number of offers of securities anchored to the CDI ( ten in total), and now there are 209.

Check out the gross returns offered by CDI-indexed CDBs over the past two weeks:

Source: Quantum Finance. Note: Returns are gross, excluding income taxes.

The advance in rates follows the rises seen in the estimates made by economists for the Selic this year and for the coming years, according to the Central Bank’s Focus Report. This week, the paper reported that economists expect the base interest rate to finish this year at 12.50%, up from the 11.75% expected four weeks earlier.

Read more:
• Bulletin Focus: Market Expects Higher Inflation and Lower GDP Again in 2023

As regards 2024, expectations revolve around a Selic of 9.25% and 8.25% in 2025, percentages higher than the 9.00% and 8.00% forecast a month earlier for the respective years .

The upward revisions focus on the latest measures announced by the economic team. Economists and financial market analysts consulted by Money info welcomed with a mixture of hope and disappointment the economic measures announced last Thursday (13) by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. According to Pasta’s calculations, the shares have the potential to deliver a 242.7 billion reais improvement in public finances in 2023.

The set of initiatives has been divided into four main groups: 1) reassessment of revenues (R$ 36.4 billion); 2) permanent revenue shares (R $ 83.28 billion); 3) extraordinary income shares (R$73 billion); and 4) reduction of expenses (R$50 billion).

CDB with prefix

In the case of fixed rate securities, some maximum rates have shown a decline in the last 15 days. This is the case of the yields offered by bonds with maturities of three and 24 months, which have started to give a maximum return of 13.79% and 13.40%, against 14.01% and 15.40% for the fortnight previous one.

It was not possible to compare the interest offered by the CDB at fixed rates with a six and 12-month maturity seen now with the previous survey, because no offers of this type were found in the latest survey.

Check out the gross yields offered by fixed-rate CDBs over the past two weeks:

Source: Quantum Finance. Note: Returns are gross, excluding income taxes.

CDB linked to inflation

Inflation-linked earnings stocks, in turn, have experienced mixed movement over the past 15 days. 36-month maturities increased at real rates, with a percentage jump from 6.05% to 6.15%.

Meanwhile, bonds with maturities of more than 24 months have seen the real yield fall from 6.45% to 6.25% in the last two weeks.

Take a look at the gross yields offered by inflation-linked CDBs over the past two weeks:

Source: Quantum Finance. Note: Returns are gross, excluding income taxes.

Worsening fiscal attention and inflation and Selic expectations

While real interest rates offered by some inflation-linked securities have declined in recent days, estimates for the Extended National Consumer Price Index (HICP) have worsened every week.

According to the Focus Report published last Monday (16), economists consulted by the BC now expect the HICP to close this year at 5.39%, higher than the 5.17% seen four weeks earlier.

The deterioration was also felt in the inflation projections in 2024, 2025 and 2026, which went respectively from 3.50%, 3.10% and 3.00%, in order, to 3.70%, 3.50% and 3.22%.

Luciano Costa, chief economist and partner of Monte Bravo Investimentos, points out that the upward revision of inflation estimates is a reflection of the fiscal worsening.

“Fiscal uncertainty taints the short-term inflation trajectory and people are less convinced that inflation will stay low in the medium term,” says the economist. In house calculations, the HICP is expected to close this year at 6.30%.

After a series of rumors in the first weeks of government on issues that could increase fiscal risk, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), is now trying to show commitment to fiscal responsibility.

Yesterday (17), during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Haddad said that he will send – by April – to Congress the proposal for a new fiscal framework, which should replace the spending ceiling.

The head of the economic team also declared that he will fight for the approval of the tax reform and that it should be presented, cut into two parts. The first, he said, should involve changes in consumption and could be approved in the first half of the year. The second should concern income and should be approved in the second half of this year.

Costa sees the cut of the material as a positive point. According to him, this could better organize the debate during the project in Congress. “There is some resistance to change and that can reduce resistance,” he says.

Another point that has contributed to worsening inflation expectations are the discussions on changes in inflation targets, assesses the expert.

The economist points out that most of the seats in the National Monetary Council (CMN), which has the task of setting the objective that the Central Bank must follow, are occupied by members linked to the new government.

With the dissolution of the Ministry of Economy into several ministries by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), the Council is once again occupied by three members: Haddad, Minister of Finance, Simone Tebet, Minister of Planning and Budget, and Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Central Bank.

Costa recalls that the debate on changing the inflation target is rather delicate. “The discussion of a goal revision needs to be careful because the effect can be the opposite of what you want,” he says. “The market may think that inflation will stay higher for a longer time,” warns the trader, saying that this could cause interest rates to stay higher for a longer time, which could have an impact on the growth.

Despite the worsening of inflation projections over the last month, the economist estimates that the level of discouragement of inflation expectations seen so far should not generate a reaction from the Central Bank.

While it is uncomfortable to see interest rates rising, the specialist believes the BC should keep the Selic stable at 13.75% this year until it figures out what the new government’s fiscal policy should be.

For him, the information that the market has so far only reinforces the idea that the expectation of an interest rate cut by the end of the year should lose steam. “The BC will continue with a tougher and more conservative stance. If the fiscal anchor is credible, he can go back to discussing the possibility of an easing of monetary policy at some point”, assesses the economist.

Related