Bitcoin surpassed $23,000 on Saturday morning (21st) and for the first time in a year has also risen above the 200-day moving average. This is a widely observed long-term indicator as moving average crossings can signal a change in trend direction.
“Bitcoin broke its 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year as it rallied sharply over the past 2 weeks”said Jack Neureuter of Fidelity Digital Assets Research.
The last time bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average was in January 2022, almost exactly a year ago. A year of bear market followed, which saw its price drop from $69,000 to $15,000 on the day FTX’s bankruptcy was announced in November.
It has since rebounded, albeit at levels that to the general public might still seem stuck in cryptocurrency winter. However, sentiment appears to have shifted significantly with the focus on upside potential.
Even CNBC is getting in on it, noting that investors’ cash holdings are close to a record $4.8 trillion in money market funds. It’s all in dollars that may be waiting to really invest after a bad year for cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds and many fiat currencies.
Investors in general, however, are likely still cautious. The S&P500 is trying to break above the resistance line at 4000. The Nasdaq surprised with a 2.5% jump on Friday.
China says it has refocused on market opening and reforms, respecting property rights and even intellectual property rights.
There is also speculative potential that cryptocurrency exchanges could open, starting in Hong Kong. Also, this reset of China, if followed, would be a pretty big development affecting resources.
Reading many investment letters, there is a long line of melancholy pointing to supply chain problems, war in Russia, high inflation, interest rates, recession, yes, climate change and of course the l The list can go on and on.
It feels like they’re pretty bummed about portraying 2022 as some kind of terrible year and, right or wrong, our point is more that people are probably tired of hearing about it, especially investors.
Instead, the prospect of that low, except where Ukraine is concerned, is quite bullish, or so JP Morgan analysts seem to think.
For Ukraine, they are preparing for an increase. Russia has been training forced conscripts for months and will now send them out in a matter of weeks.
The West is preparing for this, sending tanks and Leopards. Things may get tough for the Ukrainian military, but we have to hope that this is the wave of 2006.
After mission accomplished, the armed rebellion reached the point where Iraq was torn apart in 2004. The response of the then US government was a surge, 100,000 new troops in 2006, which seemed like a huge number.
Trained troops, not conscripts, but this didn’t go well and made the situation worse. So much so that public opinion began to turn against the war at that point with Tony Blair’s resignation just a year later when George Bush walked away with Obama’s all-new tune.
There aren’t many reasons to think that this Russian wave will be any different. They are doubling down, and therefore doubling down, not least because the Western public will be alarmed if they take advantage of forcing a response from democratically elected politicians.
And that counts, but on a principled and structural basis, as this is the first time a democracy has been attacked by a major power since Hitler.
As far as the markets are concerned, however, the issue is now largely in quarantine, with sanctions from both sides, now more of a 2022 story. in cryptocurrencies.
Silvergate bank said it has $2.5 million in bankrupt Genesis. It’s a very small amount and they claim it “Silvergate’s exposure is minimal and customer deposits are, and always have been, kept safe.”
The Osprey Bitcoin Trust (OBTC), which you’ve probably never heard of but which is like GBTC, has joined the bailout. They have $62 million of bitcoin in the fund and “they are considering an investor bailout program.”
Since it’s a small amount and since these types of vehicles are long gone, now that we have ETFs in Europe and Canada, the market naturally didn’t care.
On the mining side, Provident Bancorp “recovered cryptocurrency mining rigs in exchange for a $27.4 million loan” In the month of September.
This shows that the miners are in trouble and the bears have squeezed out as much as possible, leaving only the miners who are desperate not to continue operations.
All of this, as bad as it is for those involved, could prove that the bears have gotten too fat to the point where they have nothing left to eat.
However, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is likely still atrocious as far as the general public is concerned. You can’t even mention bitcoin right now, which is maybe a good thing because that might be exactly the time you should mention it for the troll to hear.
So we are in “dangerous” bullish territory as it is very exciting to hit $23,000, and sums that were once atrocious may now seem too high for day traders, and someone somewhere has to play a fiddle for the bears.
We could hit resistances and get more dips, but it’s likely that we won’t see any more price points, and this is what can make trading dangerous for those who don’t make it their day job.
Because we’re in sober times and that means if you’re going to buy, you wait. Also, the moving average crossover is often a buy indicator, which could explain what has looked like an impressive rally over the past few days.
Traders say that the resistance could be at $25,000, but somehow these numbers seem like a joke that if it goes as before, it’s a bit like saying that the resistance could be at $4,000.
However, since no one knows for sure if this will happen, bullfighting could be the show of the year that we can all enjoy.
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