Direct treasury: after record, paper interest rate for inflation for 2045 falls to 6.49%; market reflects HICP-15

This Tuesday (24), the market is tracking the National Extended Consumer Price Index -15 (HICP-15), which rose 0.55% in January, slightly above market expectations, which exerts upward pressure on official inflation for the month, analysts say.

Although the cores – which try to ignore the disruptions caused by temporary shocks – continued to show a downward trend in annualized terms (from 9.11% in December to 8.71% in January), the specialists questioned by the Money info point out that fuel prices are expected to influence inflation in 2023, especially in the first half.

In this sense, some manufacturers have already raised their projections due to the readjustment announced today by Petrobras for petrol. Tatiana Nogueira, an economist at XP, says rising gasoline prices, plus the possible March recall of fuels with the end of the federal tax holiday, have left the estimate for the HICP for this year with a bias towards the rise. In this sense, the IPCA projection of 5.4% of intermediation should be re-evaluated, with an increase from 0.30 to 0.40 percentage points.

Despite the upside risks for the coming months, the assessment is that the official inflation forecast itself did not bring major negative surprises and, therefore, did not lead to a new and more expressive opening of the futures yield curve in today’s session. as had been happening in the last few months, in the last few days. “Even with the higher than expected HICP+15, the market remains relatively calm today, mainly following the change in the dollar, which is declining. In some ways, investors weren’t so surprised by the rate of inflation,” says Ricardo Jorge, fixed income specialist and partner at Quantzed.

Investors also continue to receive news regarding the resumption of activities of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) in projects abroad and the use of Banco do Brasil for credit operations with exporters.

Around 16:20, the trade dollar renewed its low, at R$5.15. Ibovespa has risen above 112,000 points.

At the direct treasury, at 15:28, the interest rates offered by most government bonds had risen by up to 9 basis points (0.09 percentage points), the opposite movement to that observed in the future rate curve. fixed, the highest rates were offered by the Prefixed Treasury 2029, worth 13.18%.The day before, the stock was offering a yield of 13.27%.

Among the securities indexed to inflation, the real remuneration offered by the IPCA+ 2045 Treasury stands out: 6.49% per annum. The percentage represents a retreat from the record set at the start of the morning, when the real rates delivered by the newspaper reached 6.51%. On the eve, the paper was offering a real interest rate of 6.44% per annum.

Check the prices and rates of government bonds available for purchase from Treasury Direct at evening this Tuesday (24):

Source: direct treasury

HICP-15 and increase in petrol

In the economic scene, investors are watching the HICP-15 numbers, which increased by 0.55% in January, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported this Tuesday (24). The figure was higher than the estimate of financial market analysts: the consensus of Refinitiv was aiming for inflation at 0.52%

Over the past 12 months, the HICP-15 change was 5.87%, lower than the 5.90% observed in the immediately preceding 12 months. As of January 2022, the index stood at 0.58%.

All nine product and service groups reviewed by the IBGE were discharged in January. The Communication group stood out for the greatest variation (2.36%), while the others settled between 0.17% for Transport and Home and 0.57% for Personal expenses.

According to the IBGE, the main inflation impacts came from Health & Personal Care (1.10%) and Food & Beverage (0.55%).

Observing the data, Gustavo Sung, chief economist of Suno Research, draws attention to the maximum recorded by services inflation in the last 12 months, which went from 7.61% to 7.69%, in the calculations of the house. For him the percentage is still at a high level, which requires the central bank to closely monitor the number.

Another detail that deserves attention from the monetary authority, says Sung, is that there has been a deterioration in the diffusion index, which shows the percentage of items that have increased in price in the month. The gauge rose again in January and closed at 67.0% versus 65.7% in December, according to data from the house.

On the other hand, a fact that is more comforting, says the economist, is that core inflation fell from 9.11% in December to 8.71% in January in the cumulative over the last 12 months, despite the indicator rising in month change.

“In general, despite some warning signs, we believe that inflation has arrived as expected,” reflects the economist. However, it does not rule out future pressures that could affect the indicator in the coming months.

According to him, upside pressure should come with the return of federal fuel taxes, the possible worsening of the fiscal scenario, the increase of the risk premium and the increase of expectations. On the downside, the economist notes that inflation can be positively influenced by the prospects of reorganization of global supply chains and good harvests.

Still on the economic scene, the news stands out that Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) has announced that, starting next Wednesday (25th), the average sale price of petrol A from Petrobras to distributors will rise from R$ 3 08 to R$ 3 .31 per litre, an increase of R$0.23 per litre, or 7.5%.

Considering the mandatory blend of 73% A-type gasoline and 27% anhydrous ethanol for the composition of gasoline sold at service stations, Petrobras’ share in the consumer price will be, on average, R$ 2.42 per liter sold at the pump.

According to the company, “this increase accompanies the evolution of the reference prices and is consistent with the pricing practice of Petrobras, which seeks to balance its prices with the market, but without transferring the cyclical volatility of quotations and the exchange”. . The price of Brent oil, a reference for Petrobras, exceeded 88 dollars this Tuesday on the international market.

You meet Haddad and Lula

On the political scene, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), and the Minister of Economy of Argentina, Sergio Massa, have proposed, in a joint memorandum signed yesterday (23), the simplification and modernization of payment agreements in local currency.

The signing of the document initiates technical studies by the representatives of the governments of the two countries in search of the construction of a common unit of exchange for commercial and financial transactions. The new common currency will not replace local currencies, such as the real in Brazil and the peso in Argentina.

A concern among economic operators is that the agreement extends the possible “contagion” of the Argentine economic crisis to the Brazilian one and that the risks associated with the operation mainly affect the companies in the financial sector involved – in the Brazilian case, Banco do Brasil.

“Banco do Brasil will not run any risk in this export credit operation,” assured the Brazilian minister. “We will have a guarantee fund, which is a sovereign wealth fund, which will guarantee the letters of credit issued by Banco do Brasil for Brazilian exporters.”

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will meet this Tuesday (24) various authorities and heads of state. Among them, Charles Michel, president of the European Council, and Miguel Díaz-Canel, president of Cuba.

Lula will also participate in the summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), one of the main blocs of political debate in the region, made up of 33 countries.

Tomorrow (25), the president is expected to travel to Uruguay, where he will meet with President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou.

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