New York and Europe futures rise ahead of US GDP; Governors Forum in Brazil and other highlights

US and European stock futures indexes are trading higher on Thursday (26), ahead of the release of the first reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter 2022, with the Refinitiv consensus pointing to a 2.6 increase %. If the number is confirmed, it shows that the US economy has continued to grow even under the effect of higher interest rates to contain the rise in inflation.

Ibovespa today: live market movement this Thursday

In addition to GDP, investors await the release of weekly unemployment insurance, durable goods and new housing data for December.

The market will still track gains from airlines including Southwest, American, Alaska and JetBlue. Intel is also expected to release its numbers.

The earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2022 kicks off around here, with the release of results from Cielo (CIEL3) after the markets close. Refinitiv’s consensus forecasts a net profit of R$ 441.2 million.

Read more: Check out the results calendar for the 4th quarter 2022 of the Brazilian Stock Exchange

On the economic data front, data from the Public Debt Report and current movements, both from December.

On the exchange rate front, the dollar closed last session at its lowest for the year, at R$ 5.08, due to the scenario of greater propensity for risk, with a strong inflow of foreign capital, which contributed to the appreciation of the real .

1. World Scholarships

WE

US index futures were trading higher this morning as investors digest corporate results and await the first reading of fourth quarter GDP.

Several companies released their results after the markets closed. Tesla and Levi Strauss are among the stocks that climbed after beating expectations for revenue and earnings per share.

IBM, meanwhile, fell nearly 2% despite beating analyst expectations. The tech giant also said it would cut 3,900 jobs, or about 1.5% of its workforce. Chevron jumped nearly 3% after announcing a $75 billion share repurchase program.

See how the futures markets performed:

• Dow Jones Futures (US), +0.13%
• S&P 500 Futures (US), +0.30%
• Nasdaq Futures (US), +0.61%

Asia

Most Asian markets closed higher in today’s session as traders digested a slew of economic data from the region.

Returning from the Lunar New Year holiday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.17% and Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 3.96%, carrying gains to the region.

Japan’s Nikkei 225, on the other hand, fell 0.12% after the release of the summary of the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting last week.

South Korea’s Kospi, meanwhile, rose 1.6% despite Korean GDP falling 0.4% in the fourth quarter, marking the first contraction in more than two years.

Stock exchanges in China and Australia are closed for the holidays.

• Shanghai SE (China), Closed for public holidays
• Nikkei (Japan), -0.12%
• Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +2.37%
• Kospi (South Korea), +1.06%

Europe

European markets are generally bullish, boosted by this week’s data showing improving business sentiment in Germany and an increase in eurozone services and manufacturing activity, fueling optimism that a recession in the region can be averted.

• FTSE 100 (UK), +0.36%
• DAX (Germany), +0.24%
• CAC 40 (France), +0.73%
• FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.79%

Goods

Crude oil prices fell after a positive open, with US oil inventories rising less than expected, while the weaker dollar made oil cheaper for non-US buyers.

Crude inventories rose 533,000 barrels to 448.5 million barrels in the week ending Jan. 20, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Performance well below forecasts for an increase of 1 million barrels.

Despite lower-than-expected oil accumulation, oil inventories hit their highest level since June 2021, the EIA said.

• WTI Crude Oil, -0.09%, to $80.08 a barrel
• Brent Crude, -0.19%, at 85.96 dollars a barrel

bitcoins

• Bitcoin, +0.56% to $23,022.70 (24 hours ago)

2. Schedule

This Thursday’s agenda brings the first reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2022. The Refinitiv consensus points to growth of 2.6%. If the number is confirmed, it means that the US economy has continued to grow even under the effect of higher interest rates to contain the escalation of inflation.

The expectation is still that the country will reach the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. In theory, once the debt limit is reached, the government would no longer be allowed to borrow. Congress must suspend or change the value of the ceiling, but there is a stalemate between the Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, and Joe Biden’s Democrats.

In Brazil, foreign accounts are disclosed by the Central Bank. For the balance of payments, Itaú calculates a current deficit of US$ 6.4 billion in December, lower than the negative US$ 7.7 billion recorded a year earlier. For the trade balance, the bank expects a surplus of 3.5 billion dollars.

Brazil

8am: INCC-M

9:00: Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance, meets the Governor of Maranhão

9.30am: December Current Transactions

10am: Lula has a meeting with Haddad

12:00: Haddad meets with the Director General of the IICA

14: Haddad has a meeting with the Governor of Piauí

2.30pm: December Public Debt Report

4pm: Haddad meets PT leader in the House

18: Haddad has a meeting with the president of CAIXA

United States of America

10:30am: weekly unemployment benefit; Refinitiv’s consensus forecasts 205,000 requests

10:30am: Chicago Fed National Activity Index

10:30: Durable goods; Consensus Refinitiv projects an increase of 2.5%.

10:30 am: 4th quarter GDP, with consensus Refinitiv forecasts growth of 2.6%

12pm: December new home sales

3. Economic news

The Governors Forum discusses ICMS losses today

The first face-to-face meeting of the Governors’ Forum in 2023, scheduled for 17:00 in Brasilia, will discuss ways to replace the revenue losses recorded in states after the law sanctioned by Jair Bolsonaro, which limited the collection of ICMS, as well as suggesting changes to the rules that define tax status and borrowing capacity.

The main agenda of the meeting is the alignment of requests that the heads of state executives will bring to the meeting with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, scheduled for Friday (27), also in the federal capital.

BNDES board approves Mercadante’s name for presidency

The board of directors of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) yesterday approved the name of Aloizio Mercadante as president of the public bank. In addition to him, the board also selected Tereza Campello, Natalia Dias and Helena Tenorio for management positions at the financial institution.

The chosen ones join the directors already appointed Alexandre Corrêa Abreu, who chaired the bank ad interim, José Luis Gordon, Nelson Barbosa Filho and Luiz Navarro.

4. Political news

PL, PP and Republicans will support Rogério Marinho in the Senate

The president of the PL, Valdemar da Costa Neto, concluded yesterday evening (25) an agreement with the president of the republicans, Marcos Pereira, and with Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) to close a bloc in support of the candidacy of Rogério Marino to the presidency of the Senate. Together, the three acronyms have 23 representatives in the House.

The announcement will be made official next Saturday (28th), at 11am, in Brasilia.

The favorite in the dispute is the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who has the backing of Palazzo Planalto.

STF fines Telegram BRL 1.2 million for failing to comply with account lockout

Federal Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes fined Telegram today (25) 1.2 million reais for non-compliance with a court decision. The measure was taken after the application failed to block the account of federal deputy-elect Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG).

Moraes said that the company cannot fail to respect the decisions of the courts in Brazilian territory.

covid

Brazil yesterday recorded 92 deaths from covid-19 in the last 24 hours, for a total of 696,645 since the start of the pandemic.

With this, the moving average of deaths over the last 7 days is 140. Compared to the average of 14 days ago, the change was +55%.

In total, the country recorded 12,452 new Covid-19 diagnoses in 24 hours, completing 36,780,868 known cases since the start of the pandemic.

5. Corporate Radar

Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4)

The Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) board will review the nomination of Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN) as president of the company this Thursday, at 9 am.

American (AMER3) and BTG (BPAC11)

BTG Pactual (BPAC11) yesterday obtained an injunction in the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) to maintain the freeze of R$ 1.2 billion of funds withheld by Americanas (AMER3), according to a decision signed by Minister Og Fernandes.

The bank filed an appeal with the STJ on Tuesday evening, after the Rio de Janeiro Court of Justice overturned an injunction that allowed the bank to keep the money frozen.

Hello (OIBR3)

In a statement after questions from B3 and the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), Oi (OIBR3;OIBR4) signaled it did not know the reasons behind the significant rise in the stock in recent trading sessions, with emphasis on stock ON, which is more liquid

On the eve, ON shares rose by 22.83% and, this Wednesday (25th), assets rose by 34.62%, accumulating gains of 65.35% in just two days, going from R$ 1.27 to R$ $2.10; on Friday (20th), the maximum was already 16.36%.

PN shares, on the other hand, had a less significant but nonetheless significant rise of 14.80% last Tuesday and 19.95% this Wednesday, going from R$ 3.58 to R$ 4.93 in two sessions of trading, or an increase of 37.71%. On Friday, the high was 7.65%.

“In this regard, Oi specifies that there are no relevant facts or acts which, in its opinion, could justify possible atypical fluctuations in the number of contracts and the quantity traded of the company’s shares, in addition to those already widely disclosed to the market”, underlined the company.

(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)

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