Futures indices in the US are negative on Friday (27), erasing some of the gains from the day before, as fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) topped estimates, boosting investor optimism that the US economy could achieve a “soft landing” amid the Fed raising interest rates to tame inflation.
The focus today will be on the release of the Consumer Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Refinitiv’s consensus expects core PCE to rise 0.3% from November and 4, 4% on an annual basis.
In addition to the PCE, traders await data on consumer confidence, pending home sales and earnings.
Next week’s focus will move to the meetings of the world’s main Central Banks. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday through Wednesday, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce their monetary policy decisions on Thursday.
Ibovespa today: live market movement this Friday
In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is meeting today (27) with governors to discuss the replacement of ICMS collection losses. The meeting is scheduled for 9:30 at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia.
The earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22) started yesterday (26) on the right foot. Cielo (CIEL3) delivered a net and recurring profit of R$ 490.1 million in 4Q22, a figure 63.3% higher than reported in the same period of 2021 and above the Refinitiv consensus, which expected a profit of R$ 441.2 million.
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Read more: Check out the results calendar for the 4th quarter 2022 of the Brazilian Stock Exchange
1. World Scholarships
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US index futures traded at a low on Friday morning, with investors awaiting corporate results and economic data, looking for more clues about the direction of monetary policy in the country.
Investors are awaiting data on consumer confidence, pending home sales and the consumer price index (PCE).
Earnings season also continues. American Express, Colgate-Palmolive and Chevron are among the companies expected to report results today. Investors will be following Chevron’s report closely after the company announced a $75 billion share buyback and increased dividends on Wednesday.
See how the futures markets performed:
- Dow Jones Futures (US), -0.13%
- S&P 500 Futures (US), -0.34%
- Nasdaq Futures (US), -0.63%
Asia
Asian markets closed in positive territory on Friday as traders digested key Tokyo consumer prices in January, which rose 4.3% above estimates, nearing their highest level for the Japanese capital since mid 2019. since 1981.
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- Shanghai SE (China), Closed for public holidays
- Nikkei (Japan), +0.07
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), +0.54%
- Kospi (South Korea), +0.62%
Europe
European markets are trading at a general high, after US GDP beat expectations and with investors alert to decisions to raise interest rates next week.
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions next Thursday (2).
- FTSE 100 (UK), +0.09%
- DAX (Germany), +0.08%
- CAC 40 (France), +0.07%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), +0.04%
Goods
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive session, supported by stronger-than-expected US GDP growth and hopes for a quick recovery in Chinese demand as Covid-19 cases and deaths fell from peak levels in the last month.
Severe Covid cases in China are down 72% from their peak earlier this month, while daily deaths among Covid patients in hospitals are down 79% from their peak, indicating a normalization of the Chinese economy and raising expectations for a recovery in oil demand. .
- WTI crude oil, +0.72%, to 81.59 dollars a barrel
- Brent Oil, +0.63%, to 88.02 dollars a barrel
bitcoins
- Bitcoin, -0.59% to $22,968.52 (24 hours ago)
2. Schedule
The week ends with the release of the Consumer Price Index (PCE) for December, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation. Refinitiv’s consensus expects core PCE to rise 0.3% YoY and 4.4% YoY.
January consumer confidence and December pending home sales are also high on the international agenda.
Brazil
9:30: Meeting of President Lula with the governors
9:30am: Free resources at default rate
9:30am: Credit stash
2.30pm: Lula has lunch with the governors
2.30pm: Result of the central government primaries
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19:00: Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance, meets the president of ABIQUIM
United States of America
10:30am: December PCE Price Index
10:30am: Core PCE December; Refinitiv consensus expects growth of 0.3% compared to November and 4.4% year-on-year
10.30am: December consumer spending
12pm: Michigan Consumer Confidence
12:00: Houses pending
3pm: Baker Hughes equipment count
3. Economic news
Haddad creates task force to deal with tax reform
With the mission of getting the tax reform approved in the first year of the Lula government, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad created a special group dedicated to drafting the proposal with representatives from all areas of the ministry, according to information from the broadcast .
The direction of the economic team command is that the team be ready to respond quickly to any inquiries regarding the technical details of the proposal and its implications, as well as to deconstruct “myths” about the impact of the reform. The mission entrusted to the group is that nothing remains unanswered. The reform team is being strengthened with tax area specialists from outside the ministry, who will join the team of Tax Reform Extraordinary Secretary Bernard Appy. Most have not yet taken the oath.
4. Political news
Lula meets the governors today
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) meets this Friday with the governors. The meeting is scheduled for 9:30 at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia.
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The main agenda for discussion should be the replacement of ICMS collection losses. After the meeting, Lula will offer lunch to the governors at 2.30 pm at the Itamaraty Palace. The meeting takes place after the Governors’ Forum, held the day before. At Lula’s request, the governors have prepared reports with topics that deserve to receive more investment from the federal government stateside.
Covid
This Thursday, Brazil recorded 86 deaths from covid-19 in the last 24 hours, for a total of 696,731 since the start of the pandemic.
With this, the moving average of deaths over the last 7 days is 83. Compared to the average of 14 days ago, the change was +14%.
In total, the country recorded 13,782 new Covid-19 diagnoses in 24 hours, completing 36,794,650 known cases since the start of the pandemic.
Petrobras (PETR4) reported Thursday that its estimates of proven reserves of oil, condensate and natural gas, according to SEC criteria, came in at 10.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), as of December 31, 2022. total , 85% are oil and condensate and 15% natural gas.
In 2022, the state-owned company achieved for the second consecutive year the largest increase in reserves in its history (2.0 billion boe), reflecting the excellent performance of our assets.
The state-owned company also announced that its Board of Directors, in a meeting, approved the Tax Policy applicable to the company and its holdings.
Cielo (CIEL3) achieved net and recurring income of R$ 490.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22), an amount 63.3% higher than reported in the same period of 2021 and higher than the Refinitiv consensus, which expected a profit of R$ 441.2 million, communicated the company this Thursday (26).
According to the company, the result was driven by both Cielo Brasil and Cateno, as well as improved operating fundamentals, with growth in revenues and expenses under control.
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(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)
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