Futures indices in the US and European stock markets dawned in the negative on Monday (30), with investors eyeing global monetary policy. The Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to slow down the pace of the monetary tightening that began last Wednesday (1). According to CME Group’s rate monitor, 98.4% of analysts believe rates will be increased by 25 basis points, in the range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
In Europe, there is also the monetary policy decision. The expectation is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at its meeting which ends on Thursday (2).
Ibovespa today: live market movement this Monday
Meanwhile, US corporate earnings season is in full swing, with big tech achievements in the spotlight. The figures of Meta, owner of Facebook, will be released on Wednesday. Thursday is the turn of Alphabet (parent company of Google), Apple and Amazon. Investors will be watching the results as these companies embarked on a wave of layoffs earlier this year.
Around here, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank of Brazil is expected to keep the Selic rate at 13.75%, but market participants are eager to understand how the institution sees the current scenario, with risks coming from the tax front, where a new chassis has not yet been defined.
The parliamentary recess ends in Brasilia and the leaders of the Senate and Chamber will be elected next Thursday (2).
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1. World Scholarships
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US futures indices opened at lows this Monday morning, with investors focused on the next Federal Reserve meeting, which starts tomorrow (31). The two-day meeting will conclude with the central bank’s FOMC announcing its latest interest rate decision.
Market participants expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 percentage points. Investors will be looking for further clues about how much the central bank will hike rates in the fight against inflation.
The corporate earnings season is also high on the US agenda, with McDonald’s and General Motors releasing their data on Tuesday, followed by tech giants Apple, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Alphabet at the end of the week.
See how the futures markets performed:
- Dow Jones Futures (US), -0.52%
- S&P 500 Futures (US), -0.72%
- Nasdaq Futures (US), -0.97%
Asia
Asian markets closed mixed on Monday, with emphasis on the fall in shares of Adani Group, India, after the conglomerate was accused of fraud and irregularities by Hindenburg Research.
Chinese markets closed higher on the back of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.
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- Shanghai SE (China), +0.14%
- Nikkei (Japan), +0.19%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), -2.73%
- Kospi (South Korea), -1.35%
Europe
European markets are bearish in today’s session, while the focus this week is fully on the monetary policy decisions to come from central banks, with the Fed announcing its next rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and by the European Central Bank on Thursday.
Germany’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) decreased 0.2 percent from the third quarter in adjusted terms. The Refinitiv consensus expects stability compared to the immediately preceding quarter.
The result could be a signal that Europe’s largest economy could slide into a long-awaited recession due to the war in Ukraine.
- FTSE 100 (UK), -0.24%
- DAX (Germany), -0.25%
- CAC 40 (France), -0.38%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), -0.18%
Goods
Oil prices eased after a positive open, buoyed by tensions in the Middle East after a drone strike in Iran and with China promising over the weekend to foster a recovery in consumption which would support fuel demand.
China’s iron ore prices rise sharply as business returns after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- WTI Crude Oil, -0.87%, to $78.99 a barrel
- Brent Crude, -0.69%, at 86.05 dollars a barrel
- Iron ore traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange rose 1.98% to 873.50 yuan, or $129.35
bitcoins
- Bitcoin, -0.88% to $23,557.28 (24 hours ago)
2. Schedule
This week’s agenda highlights the first Super Wednesday of the year (1). The Central Bank of Brazil and the Federal Reserve, in the United States, will decide on the future of monetary policy.
In Brazil, the Selic rate should remain at 13.75%, but everyone is eager to understand how the Monetary Policy Committee sees the current scenario, with risks coming from the fiscal front, where a new framework has not yet been defined.
In the United States, the Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to slow the pace of monetary tightening that began last year. According to CME Group’s rate monitor, 98.4% of analysts believe rates will be increased by 25 basis points, in the range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
But the rate decision is not the only major event on the American agenda. Friday (3) will be announced the pay book, with official US labor market data. consent Finishing it expects 185,000 jobs to be created in the country in January (up from 223,000 in December). And for the unemployment rate, he expects it to grow from 3.5% to 3.6%.
In Europe, there is also the monetary policy decision. The expectation is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at its meeting which ends on Thursday (2). But first, the January consumer inflation index will be released on Wednesday, with an expected deceleration from 9.2% to 9.1%.
Brazil
8:00 January IGP-M
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8am: Confidence in service
8:25 am: Focus Bulletin
9:30am: December primary results
12h: Roberto Campos Neto, president of the BC, has a meeting with federal deputy Rodrigo Maia (PSDB) (closed to the press)
3.30 pm: Lula meets the German chancellor
United States of America
12:30pm: Dallas Fed Industrial Activity Index
Japan
20:30: Unemployment rate
8.50pm: Industrial production
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8.50pm: Retail sales
3. Economic news
Lula receives the German chancellor today to discuss bilateral agreements
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will receive the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, at 15:30 for a bilateral meeting and, at 18:00, the meeting will bring together the business delegations of Brazil and Germany.
Scholz is expected to announce the sending of another R$ 170 million to the Amazon Fund, a mechanism that collects international donations and investments to fight deforestation and promote conservation actions in the largest tropical forest in the world.
The German leader will also face a potential increase in bilateral trade and the ratification of the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur.
4. Political news
Moraes denies the suspension of the mandate of 11 elected deputies
Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), rejected this Sunday (29) a request to prevent the inauguration of 11 deputies linked to former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) for their alleged involvement in the invasion of the headquarters of the Tre Potenze on 8 January. With the decision, elected MPs will be able to take office next Wednesday.
The decision comes after the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) defended the filing of the action, which was brought by a group of lawyers.
The request involved the deputies Dr. Luiz Ovando (PP-MS), Marcos Pollon (PL-MS), Rodolfo Nogueira (PL-MS), João Henrique Catan (PL-MS), Rafael Tavares (PRTB-MS), Carlos Jordy (PL-RJ), Silvia Waiãpi (PL-AP), André Fernandes (PL-CE), Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG), Sargento Rodrigues (PL-MG) and Walber Virgolino (PL-PB).
5. Corporate Radar
Petrobras (PETR4) informs that it received, last Friday (27), in cash, the amount of R$ 1.3 billion, referring to the company compensation supplement (earnout) for the financial year 2022, for the Sépia block.
The amount already includes the pre-tax amount on the 28%, 21% and 21% stakes of TotalEnergies EP Brasil Ltda, PETRONAS Petróleo Brasil Ltda and QatarEnergy Brasil Ltda respectively in Sepia.
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The state-owned company expects to receive the full payment related to the FY 2022 earnout, which is borne by the Sépia and Atapu block partners, by January 31, 2023.
PetroReconcave (RECV3)
PetroRecôncavo (RECV3) has signed a purchase and sale agreement to compose the natural gas supply portfolio of Sergas, the natural gas distributor of Sergipe.
The contract is valid for ten years from the date of signature. The expected steady volumes are 50,000 m³/day of natural gas in the second half of 2023 and 100,000 m³/day of natural gas from 2024 to 2032.
The start of the supply is conditional on the signing between Sergas and TAG of a natural gas transport contract, corresponding to the departures from the delivery points determined by the buyer, a contract which is currently being negotiated.
(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)
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